The Big Story
Steady-Ish As She Goes
Quick Take:
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The median home price in the United States landed 1% below the all-time high it reached in June 2022 after appreciating 13.6% in 2023. At the same time, mortgage rates are 1% higher than a year ago, which means the monthly cost of a home is 10% higher than last year.
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The Fed hiked rates by 0.25% in mid-July to the highest level since 2001, which didn’t impact mortgage rates because the rate increase was expected. However, Fitch unexpectedly downgraded U.S. credit from AAA to AA+ on August 1 and, although we’ve maintained that 30-year mortgage rates would likely hover between 6% and 7% during 2023, the surprise downgrade may push mortgage rates slightly above 7% in the third quarter.
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Broadly, the economy is doing well with strong GDP growth, high employment rates and job creation, falling inflation, and growing consumer confidence. Strong economics coupled with a low supply of homes have kept prices climbing, despite sustained elevated mortgage rates.
Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
The Power House Of Housing
At the start of 2023, the economic consensus resoundingly predicted an impending recession, which has yet to come, and we’re happy to say that consensus has shifted to moderate economic growth. A “soft landing” — reducing inflation without a recession — seems more likely than ever. The economy is far from perfect, but the effect of largely positive economic news eventually leads to a more positive economic outlook from the average person. Job creation and GDP growth in the first half of 2023 have significantly beat expectations. Inflation is declining rapidly, and consumer confidence is the highest it’s been since February 2022. We can largely attribute the bounce in home prices to consumer perception, but consumer perception isn’t the only factor. Home prices certainly rose as recession worries subsided, even in the face of elevated mortgage rates. Supply, or lack thereof, has been the other major factor in the price rebound. Low, but growing inventory allowed for prices to increase quickly.
Housing doesn’t follow an Economics 101 supply-and-demand problem in part because it isn’t a commodity good. Inventory rising from near historic lows actually helps prices because more buyers can find a desirable home. During times of normal seasonality (at least pre-pandemic), inventory, new listings, sales, and prices all increase from January to July and decline from July to January. Any movement away from the hyper-low post-pandemic inventory levels is good for matching buyers with the right home, because buyers like enough selection to find the home they want in their desired location. Price appreciation this year indicates that even though sales are low, buyers are finding the homes they want.
During the Fed’s July meeting, board members decided unanimously to raise the federal funds rate for the 11th time since March 2022 to its highest level since 2001. Although headline inflation (Consumer Price Index, or CPI) is down by nearly two-thirds since it hit 9% last June, core inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices from the inflation calculation, has only declined 15%. A large component to core inflation is shelter. The CPI for shelter is only down 5% from the March 2023 peak. This isn’t exactly surprising, considering how close prices are to their peak. The Fed stated they would take future rate hikes on a meeting-by-meeting basis. However, this was before Fitch downgraded U.S. credit on August 1. At best, the downgrade will have little to no impact on interest rates, but if it does have any effect, it will move rates higher. The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.81% at the end of July and 6.90 the first week of August. Based on weekly data ending August 3, we expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to hover between 6.25% and 7.25%.
Different regions and individual houses vary from the broad national trends, so we’ve included a Local Lowdown below to provide you with in-depth coverage for your area. In general, higher-priced regions (the West and Northeast) have been hit harder by mortgage rate hikes than less expensive markets (the South and Midwest) because of the absolute dollar cost of the rate hikes and the limited ability to build new homes. As always, we will continue to monitor the housing and economic markets to best guide you in buying or selling your home.
Big Story Data
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
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Year to date, single-family home and condo prices were up significantly across Silicon Valley. We expect seasonal trends to hold through the rest of the year and for home prices to remain fairly stable.
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Sales, new listings, and inventory all fell from June to July, likely indicating the start of the typical seasonal decline across supply and demand metrics. Inventory remains depressed but has still grown significantly in 2023, which has helped alleviate some excess demand.
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Months of Supply Inventory has declined significantly in 2023, homes are selling more quickly, and sellers are receiving a greater percentage of asking price, all of which highlight an increasingly competitive environment for buyers.
Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.
Single-family home price growth slows as fewer new listings come to market
In Silicon Valley, the housing market is always experiencing high demand, especially in the spring and early summer months. Increasing demand and low, but rising inventory helped drive the rapid home price appreciation that Silicon Valley experienced in the first half of the year. Typically, demand begins to decline in July and August, so the consistently low supply may become less of an issue. However, less of an issue doesn’t mean a non-issue. Quality new listings will certainly be sold quickly, while less desirable homes will sit on the market. This isn’t unusual, but it’s more apparent due to current mortgage rates. Potential homebuyers aren’t nearly as willing to pay a premium for a fixer upper as they were in 2020 and 2021.
Although we don’t expect any new record-high prices in 2023, the median single-family home and condo prices were up significantly across Silicon Valley counties. Year to date, single-family home prices have increased 17% in San Mateo, 21% in Santa Clara, and 13% in Santa Cruz. Condo prices in San Mateo, Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz were up 15%, 10, and 7%, respectively. As sales and new listings slow in the second half of the year, home prices typically remain stable or decline at the margins.
Inventory, sales, and new listings declined in July
Single-family home and condo inventory, sales, and new listings rose in the first half of the year, although all remain at depressed levels. Typically, inventory peaks in July or August and declines through December or January. Single-family home inventory seems to have peaked in June, so we will likely see fewer transactions in the coming months. Currently, inventory is so low relative to demand that any amount of new listings is good for the market. However, new listings were unusually low from January through July 2023, which has directly impacted both inventory and sales. The number of home sales is, in part, a function of the number of active listings and new listings coming to market. Since January 2023, sales jumped 106% while new listings rose 50%, whereas last year, for example, sales rose 40% and new listings increased 33% by July.
As tight inventory levels continue, sellers are gaining negotiating power. In January 2023, the average seller received 93% of list price compared to 100% of list in July. Inventory will almost certainly remain historically low for the year, and the market will remain competitive in the third quarter.
Months of Supply Inventory remained under two months in July, indicating a strong sellers’ market
Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Silicon Valley market tends to favor sellers, especially for single-family homes, which is reflected in its low MSI. MSI has trended even lower over the past six months for single-family homes, meaning the market more strongly favors sellers. The sharp drop in MSI occurred due to the higher proportion of sales relative to active listings and less time on the market. The only exceptions are condos in Santa Cruz, which are closer to a balanced market.
Local Lowdown Data
In the ever-fluctuating landscape of the United States real estate market, 2023 has presented a paradox of sorts. Despite a 1% dip below the all-time high of median home prices set in June 2022, home values experienced an overall increase of 13.6% during the year. Simultaneously, mortgage rates have climbed by 1% compared to the previous year, resulting in a 10% higher monthly cost for homeowners. While the Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates in July to levels unseen since 2001 had no immediate impact on mortgage rates, an unexpected downgrade of U.S. credit by Fitch in August may push rates above 7% in the coming quarter. Despite these challenges, the broader economic landscape remains robust, with strong GDP growth, high employment rates, decreasing inflation, and rising consumer confidence. This favorable economic backdrop, coupled with a persistent shortage of homes, has continued to drive price appreciation, even in the face of sustained high mortgage rates.
